I don’t fiddle or edit or change while I’m going through that first draft. ~ Nora Roberts
I’m not quite sure how this happened, though I think that it may have been a number of things. Perhaps it had to do with their AFC North Championship. Perhaps it was simply the fact that I had time to watch every game this year and be an active fan. And perhaps still it was that Brian Leonard and Mike Zimmer reminded me of a more bad-ass version of Billy and Jimmy Lee from Double Dragon. Who knows these things? Whatever the reason, I have not been able to let go of the Bengals 2009 NFL football season insofar as that it may actually never end and rather meld into this up-coming season opener. Who-motherfuckin-dey!
Being involved whole-heartedly in the politics, players, and social undercurrents of a professional football team inevitably leads to being somewhat intimate with others, whether planned or not. In order to understand the dynamic of say wide receiver free agency, you must understand the needs for wide receivers on other teams, notably within your own division though perhaps this has less of an effect on the chess-game of personnel marketing. While this aspect of the season could be several posts in and of itself, I still remain sure of the point; my near maniacal interest in the Bengals this off-season has lead me to understand more of the NFL than I thought necessary by anyone who was not an active employee of ESPN. Perhaps they are looking for a new analyst… if it got me out of DC, I might consider it.
All that being said, and this being an unprecedented year in football for the Guttersnake, I will do something in this forum that I have never done before: The first ever Never-In-The-Nati Mock Draft 2010. Here I will break down for you the likely first round draft picks of all 32 NFL teams in order to give you the a bit of a preview of what your team may or may not be up to come Draft Day. So without wasting too much more time let the first annual NIT-Nati Draft get started!
…and pay attention to this post; I am going to update this if some more crazy McNabb trades go down … (final update: 20 April 2010)
1. The Saint Louis Rams – Sam Braford, QB, Oklahoma. The first four picks are about as close to a lock as I can figure, and Sam Braford is probably the most sure thing. While it is widely disputed whether he or Jimmy Clausen will make a better NFL starting quarterback, The Rams have been courting Braford for nearly two months now, and it’s likely that a salary deal has already been reached. Release of Marc Bulger simply shows that a new franchise quarterback is coming to St. Louis. Oh, and if your surprised by this pick, you’ve been living under a rock.
2. The Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska. This guy is to a defensive line what Superman is to The Justice League: Huge. I do not think that it is too much to say that Suh can single-handedly make a defensive line go from good to WTF?! True, Matthew Stafford does need to get some new blood in front of him as well, and for this drafting Russell Okung makes a really (really) good argument, but it’s a deep draft for offensive line talent, which something The Lions can easily make up with their extremely early second round pick. Addition: With the departure of Ernie Sims, the defensive line now takes a much sharper edge in terms of team needs. With Suh, a handful more early picks and the strong free-agency work shown by Detroit in the past few months, this team may get much needed spark of life next season. Is .500 too much to ask? I don’t think so. Calling it.
3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma. Tampa Bay needs, well, a little of everything. While these guys have a ton of options here, and Suh not likely, I think that the Bucs will take McCoy with their first pick. He’s just too good not to take, and at this point for Tampa Bay, you’ve got to just take the best thing out there regardless; they were that bad last season… for what it’s worth, I think that they’ll be that bad again this season.
4. The Washington Redskins – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma. With Donovan McNabb at the helm, it’s starting to get really exciting in Washington. Mike Shanahan promised the Capital City change, and it looks like that is what it is going to get! Remember, Shanahan, aside from coaching great quarterbacks to further greatness, also routinely churned out 1,000 yard rushers in Denver. That’s something he won’t be able to do with this offensive line. Williams, while perhaps not as high on everyone’s boards as Russell Okung, fits better with Mike Shanahan’s offensive array. At this point, I think it’s safe to say that Mike is going make the team in his image and no one else’s. …and though it doesn’t have anything to do with the draft, I want to go on record saying that at the end of last season, I predicted that Washington would win the NFC East this year. Calling it.
5. The Kansas City Chiefs – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State. (UPDATE) I said it before, I think that KC is a hard nut to figure out. The Chiefs have two central needs: to protect Matt Cassel and to stop their secondary from sucking. If Russell Okung goes to the Skins, then it’s likely that KC will draft Eric Berry at safety; however, if Okung is still on the board, it’s going to be hard for them to pass up such a key player at such a key position. Which is an awful catch-22 for Kansas City; there are four awesome safeties this year in the draft and all will be gone before the Chiefs can pick again. Then it hit me: draft down. I think that there is an EXTREME likelihood that the Chiefs will draft down to get more out of this year’s. It could be the idea of paying for Okung or it could be that they just don’t like their prospects, either way, I just got this weird hunch. Still, a mock draft doesn’t account for those sort of variables, so I’m saying they go with Okung. Honestly, this could go either way and could be the first subtle shake-up in this year’s draft.
6. The Seattle Seahawks – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson. I think the draft day fun really starts right here with Seattle’s pick. As I said before, it will be very interesting to see how they work this one out as this is both new Head Coach Pete Carroll and new GM John Schneider’s first draft. While there is still some chatter about Jimmy Clausen roosting here, I think that Carroll made his QB call with Charlie Whitehurst as a successor to Matt Hasselbeck. Still, the Seahawks have two first round picks, both likely to be on the offensive side of the ball. Bryan Bulaga, while a popular favorite for this draft pick, would likely leave Spiller exposed for too many other teams before Seattle could have their second first round pick. Does Carroll chance it? No way. Seattle was sacked 44 times last year, and with a new quarterback change, you have to make fixing that statistic a first priority… that’s why got two first round picks! Spiller goes at no. 6 because he won’t be around at no14. Let me address this again at no.13…
7. The Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry, S, Florida. I know, I know, Joe Haden has been the favorite here, but as it looks like the early teams picks are going to be on their lines, then it’s a no brainer that Berry is more of an impact player. Also with this pick, you’ve got to look at the AFC North. With the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens all gearing up for massive passing offenses, the Browns have to look at six games this season where their secondary is guaranteed to be critical. Signing Sheldon Brown is step one, drafting Eric Berry is step two. Delhomme is likely a short term answer, but with him, Cribbs, and Massaquoi on the roster, I can’t see Cleveland spending a first round pick on a QB or a WR… not this year.
8. The Oakland Raiders – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers. (UPDATE) I’m not really much of a Raider’s fan, but in the season, I drink with a few. Talking to them recently, I have gotten more than an earful about the horrors of Al Davis… and I thought Mike Brown was bad? Bruce Campbell is easily the mock draft favorite to go to Oaktown, but after last year’s bust, even ol’ Al might go for something a little more safe, even if it isn’t totally smart. Davis fits the bill and is a smarter choice than Campbell. With Bryan Buluga still on the board, he could slip into a niche here, which would admittedly be a great pick by Oakland, but too much tunnel vision on draft day surrounds the Raiders. On a completely unrelated note, I still would love to see Jimmy Clausen end up here, but that fat tub of ass Russell is sucking up too much of a paycheck for this franchise to be able to hit another first round QB. It’s not so bad with Bruce Gradkowski will likely start this season… we’ll see…
9. The Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame. And there it is. I do not see how this team can afford to not draft this guy. Terrell Owens is gone, Josh Reed is gone. The Bills will not pass up Clausen… unless of course he isn’t there. If for some wild reason Seattle or Cleveland snag him early, then I will have a hard time with this call. Without Clausen I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo drafts Colt McCoy in the second round. Then this pick likely becomes Mike Iupati or another big offensive line meat-eater. For the record, this is the most critical pick in the draft. Without Clausen, Buffalo will be the worst team in the NLF in 2010.
10. The Jacksonville Jaguars – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida. The Jags are a wicky-wacky team going into this draft. They have some very serious needs, first and foremost selling tickets. To fix that, I stand by the prediction that somehow, someway Jacksonville will leave the draft with Tim Tebow… but not in this round. The addition of Aaron Kampman boosts the rush, but adding Pierre-Paul makes it explosive, something that is needed for a team that has to complete with Peyton Manning in its division. However, I would not be surprised if they took Dez Bryant here either. Keep in mind, that Jacksonville does not have a second round pick, and if they have Tebow in their hearts and minds and ticket stubs then it’s possible that the Jags hedge their bets and try to pair two potential (however long shot) NFL stars. The only other name I’ve heard thrown around would be Earl Thomas, but this team seems to be more committed to pass-rush than secondary improvement, at least at this point.
11. The Denver Broncos – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama. (UPDATE) Okay, I flip-flopped here again. I know there is a need at wide receiver, why would Josh McDaniels trade one diva receiver for another. I am hedging this bet back to McClain, citing one of the same reasons why Cleveland won’t take Clausen – the coach just doesn’t want to deal with him. The Broncos still have a huge glaring need at linebacker, however; they have a glaring need for a few other things too, which means it’s now just a question of prioritizations. Casey Weigmann went back to the Chiefs, leaving massive (no pun intended) need for a new center, something to consider before the up-coming training-camp quarterback war with Brady Quinn and Kyle Orton. But I do agree spending a no. 11 pick on a center seems, well, dumb. I’m not totally ruling out Denver taking a wide receiver in an attempt to grow a Bryant-Quinn passing duo. Dez Bryant could still go here, but it’s below a 40% chance right now. A real surprise would be Maurkice Pouncey. That would be a first-round shocker!!
12. The Miami Dolphins – Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee. Bill Parcells has drafted a linebacker every year for six straight years. While part of me thinks that he’d do it again if Rolando McClain or perhaps Jason Pierre-Paul are still on the board, the other part of me is viewing this trend a commitment to the defensive side of the ball. Jason Ferguson is 35 years old this season, and the ‘Fins need to consider that. The acquisition of Brandon Marshall won’t effect this call… in case you’re wondering.
13. The San Francisco ‘49ers – Joe Haden, CB, Florida. This is a do-or-die pick for the Niners. They got a run game to fix but, thanks to Sheldon Brown’s departure, a gaping hole in the secondary. Wisely (I hope) Seattle realizes this and robs a division rival of a need by snagging CJ Spiller early. Now, San Fran does have a second first round pick at no. 17 (just four more down the line!) but can they get all of what they need? If Seattle is passes up CJ Spiller, then San Francisco will draft him here. Why? Because no one will take Haden between now and no. 17, which means the Niners make out like bandits, and Seattle will get a lineman and some loose change. However, I think that Pete Carroll is going to see this playing out, and that leaves Haden as the clear choice for the ‘49ers.
14. The Seattle Seahawks – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa. (UPDATE) We know that Seattle had to choose between CJ Spiller and Bryan Bugala. As you probably noticed, I switched up my earlier pick to Bugala, in order to rob the 49er’s of a running back. The second part of this calculated passing over of Bulaga is understanding the chances of him still being here. Looking back, the only team that could legitimately consider drafting Bulaga is Oakland… and I think Carroll will take that chance. Worst case scenario, the Seahawks draft a different offensive tackle like Anthony Davis or Charles Brown. However; Dez Bryant is still lingering around and they may add him to the roster in lieu of not acquiring Brandon Marshall in free agency. More interesting would be to see if Pete Carroll drafts Taylor Mays here. While it might be a bit early for him in this draft, the x-factor may be that Carroll has coached Mays for the past four years at USC at safety, a position that the Seahawks could use an up-grade in. Bottom line – Seattle could do pretty much anything with this pick if they take Spiller early.
15. The New York Giants – Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri (UPDATE) This seems like a fairly simple call. With the CJ Spiller unavailable, then I think that the G-Men will go with the next best linebacker to McClain in order to replace Antonio Peirce. This may be too high for Weatherspoon, but New York has needs.
16. The Tennessee Titans – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech. Tennessee could go two ways with this pick. The fan favorite would be Kyle Wilson in the secondary, but with Earl Thomas still out there, he would make the safer pick. Still, the Titans are more likely to draft a defensive end; it’s just their style. Lots of mock drafts have Jason Pierre-Paul here, and I could see that. It all depends on how Jacksonville picks. Those two teams could easily flip the choices I’ve laid out for them and walk away happy.
17. The San Francisco ‘49ers – Charles Brown, OT, USC. By picking up Joe Haden, the secondary is a bit more solidified, but a strong free safety is still a big need… almost as big a need as fixing the offensive line. Brown a good pick and the best offensive tackle left at this point in the draft. Of course, should Seattle do something silly with second pick (like take Taylor Mays), then you could see Anthony Davis in red and gold come next season rather than Brown. And while I’m not ruling out the Niners picking Earl Thomas or Taylor Mays or even Kyle Wilson, I just don’t see the NFC West as a division with a huge passing threat (even if the prodigal son Sam Bradford comes to St. Louis). A better line means that a second round running back has a better chance to succeed.
18. The Pittsburgh Steelers – Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida. (UPDATE) Big change up here. Pouncey’s name started circulating last week sometime and now his all chatter. He’s not quite as big as Mike Iupati, though perhaps just as good. The upside is that he is a born center who can play at guard, rather than a guard who might be able to play tackle. Pittsburgh needs a center, and Pouncey could provide depth and versatility to the Steelers were Iupati might not. Ben is a quarterback who is concussion susceptible and his protection sucks. To ignore that at your primary need is just dumb. While the Steelers also need to fix the situation at corner back, because as we all saw last year, they kinda got this one guy who does do it all. …and he does break. However, a guy like Pouncey isn’t something you can pass on when you need to fix your quarterback protection just as much… too bad he doesn’t moonlight as a defense lawyer. (burn!) Interesting as well, as the loss of Santino Holmes will certainly effect the passing game, it’s wholly possible that Dez Bryant could go here. It’s common knowledge that receivers take a year or two in the NFL to mature and Hinds Ward isn’t getting any younger. But, with the Jets not likely to select a receiver now, I think that it is safe to say that Byant will be the only receiver selected in the first round. If that’s the case, the Steelers would still be in a great position to get someone worth a damn in the second round.
19. The Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan. This one just seems easy. Thomas Dimitroff has drafted the last three years on value to needed positions and it has worked out alright so far. This year, what Atlanta needs is a defensive end. This other than my first three picks, this may be the pick that I am most sure of.
20. The Houston Texans – Earl Thomas, S, Texas. Tough choice for the Texans. The two great players at positions they need, running back and corner / safety, are still in the draft at their pick… and they can only have one. I suppose things could be worse? Running back Ryan Matthews will be the definite if Thomas is gone by pick no. 20, which he very well could be (I honestly am having a hard time figuring out how he fell this far…), but Houston won’t take Matthews over Thomas. This team’s seems to have a single focus: to beat Peyton Manning and the Colts and win the AFC South. You just can’t do that with a less-than-awesome secondary.
21. The Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Iupati, G, Idaho. (UPDATE) I could be my subconscious forcing me to make a mock draft so that in some parallel world the Bengals draft Iupati, but I don’t think so. Every football insider has us taking Dez Bryant or Jermaine Gresham. Why would they do that? They passed on Terrell Owens for a fraction of what Bryant would cost, and he could bring just as much headache. And true, Jermaine Gresham is a great player, but there are going to be so many more of them available in the second round! There is only one 6’5” 350lb Somoan wall out there to protect Carson Palmer. He would be the best pick for Cincinnati at this point in the draft. Lastly, there is the temptation to draft Taylor Mays. Again, not a bad pick, but Cinci has Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall in the secondary already. Hopefully, Mike Brown resists the urge for a new safety in the first round. Mays would be a good pick only if Iupati is does not fall to no. 21.
22. The New England Patriots – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma. (UPDATE) Another switch back. Maybe it’s a long shot, but I believe that Bryant will fall this far. Wes Welker will not likely be back until mid-season, and even then, who knows how ‘back’ he’ll really be. Randy Moss only has one more year with the Pats, and if New England and Cincinnati taught us anything last year, it was that a single marquee receiver is not enough to keep an offence buoyant in today’s NFL. Having Tom Brady doesn’t mean anything if he doesn’t have anyone to throw to, and Bryant adds much needed depth and one more weapon. Best to get start him maturing in the NFL now and under someone like Brady and Moss… however, on the off chance they do, my thoughts are Jermaine Gresham, a real two-for-one as an offensive passing threat and a tight end. Also there is Jared Odrick at defensive end or Matthew Ryan at running back. It could happen. The Pats also lack a legimate go-to running back, so I’m not ruling this pick either. In short, the Pats got options.
23. The Green Bay Packers – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State. (UPDATE) I’m fifty-fifty between Kyle Wilson and Charles Brown. Green Bay found out late last year that Aaron Rogers’ line wasn’t as strong as it was perceived to be. An offensive tackle would be the best call at this point help put that fire out, but corner back is still a big need also. The Pack did sign Chad Clifton, which may work out and may not – his knees could be his Achilles heel. Nonetheless, I don’t think that Brown will be here at this point, and Wilson is a fan-favorite in Green Bay. Devin McCourty is another great corner that has just as good a chance to find himself in green and yellow. And don’t forget that Maurkice Pouncey is still around, and, while not a tackle by trade, could be a really strong addition if Green Bay thinks he can make the adjustment. Any of these could be the no. 23 pick.
24. The Philadelphia Eagles – Taylor Mays, S, USC. (UPDATE) Maybe it’s McNabb leaving, but every football know-it-all in lower forty-eight has their two cents on who the Eagles need to draft… and none of them are the same. So here’s mine: with a completely reworked defensive that is controversial at best, one can make a very strong argument that a defensive end, tackle, or linebacker should be this pick. The same argument could be made with Jamaal Jackson’s return still up in the air and a need at the center position serving as the proverbial elephant in the room. Nonetheless, I’m keying in on Sheldon Brown’s departure. Asante Samuel is an aging corner who, due to contract figures, likely will not play with the Eagles next year, but in the meantime he needs help. Big time. Samuel is a horrible tackler and blocker, and Mays is a monster in both departments. Everyone is talking about risks stiffness with regards to Mays; I think the risk for Philadelphia is not drafting him.
25. The Baltimore Ravens – Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma. (UPDATE) As a Bengals fan, it’s one thing have to pass up on a huge need at tight end in the draft, but it’s a real kick in the junk to have the best tight end go to your only serious division rival this year. Jermaine Gresham is a great addition to Joe Flacco’s growing arsenal of targets, and he’s a top-notch tight end. Sure Jared Odrick is still on the boards and would certainly bring Baltimore’s pass-rush up a few notches, I don’t think that the the over-all make of the Ravens would be enhanced too much by this pick, but one can hope. He’s there only real other option at this point in the draft.
26. The Arizona Cardinals – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas. (UPDATE) The Cards, despite what would appear to be critical departures from their quarterback and marquee wide receiver, are still sitting fairly okay. Partially that has to do with the fact that they are atop in the NFC West, which is akin to being the fastest kid at the Special Olympics. Nevertheless, the biggest need for Arizona is easily some new blood at the linebacker position. If the picks go the way I see it thus far, this is a no-brainer call for the Cardinals.
27. The Dallas Cowboys – Nate Allen, S, USF. Dallas wants Mike Iupati, like Mike Iupati wants the red light to come on at Krispy Kreme. But if he is still here at this point in the draft, I’ll buy everyone who posts a comment on this blog a warm, fresh box o’ donuts. The biggest need in Dallas right now is a big upgrade in the offensive line. Center Maukice Pouncey is a logical choice, so are tackles Roger Saffold and Charles Brown, any of which would work out fine here. But at no. 27 in the draft and a glaring need, there is really only one legitimate first or second round worthy safety left in the draft. I think Jerry Jones will try to pull some draft-day fireworks to deal with the o-line problem and in the meantime make a bee-line at Nate Allen.
28. The San Diego Chargers – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State. I know that this one seems really easy, but it’s not. With LaDainian Tomlinson gone this team does have to either invest in great potential running back or figure out how it is going to reinvent itself. Other than CJ Spiller, Matthews is the top running back this year and definitely has the prospective. What is going to make this really tough on the Chargers is if Jared Odrick is still around. More than a running game, San Diego needs to a major patch at defensive end. Likely the plan is to salvage the offense with Matthews and with a later pick, stop the bleeding on defense. But Odrick, who should in all rights probably not fall this far in the draft, could do more than just fix the problem, he might be able to solve it.
29. The New York Jets – Jared Odrick, DE, Penn State. (UPDATE) Orginally, I had the Jets taking Demaryius Thomas, but with acquision of dubious wide reciever Santonino Holmes to the roster, I think that their need on the wings might drop down a bit. Odrick is a monster pick this late in the draft and a huge addition to an already powerful defensive squad. A young Demaryius Thomas might still be added here as could Golden Tate. Unlikely though.
30. The Minnesota Vikings – Kareem Jackson, DB, Alabama. Unless Brett Farve retires, the Vikings really aren’t hurting anywhere in terms of immediate needs… except for corner. Cedric Griffin’s injury in last year’s final game has him unlikely to return in time for this season, and Antoine Winfield is perpetually hobbled. The secondary is where Minnesota needs new blood… that and if Farve needs a hip replacement.
31. The Indianapolis Colts – Rodger Saffold, OT, Indiana. (UPDATE) The Colts want Mike Iupati or Maurkice Pouncey, but it won’t happen. By the time Indiana gets a chance to get a new level of protection for Peyton Manning it will be Saffold. It could be Vladimir Ducasse or Bruce Campbell, but really, we are getting into second round talent at this point.
32. The New Orleans Saints – Everson Griffin, DE, USC. (UPDATE) Doesn’t matter how, it works for the Saints who need help all over the defensive side of the ball. Too many members of that Super Bowl winning defense have left recently, and if New Orleans wants to do have a shot at the big game again, they have to rebuild their line and secondary. Brian Price is a good call to land at the Super Dome’s doorstep, and Nate Allen could be too if Dallas goes another way with their pick. No matter what though, this pick with be defensive.
So for those of you who are still reading, first of all, well done. The big take away for this first round is going to be the number of safeties and corners; four safeties and two corners by my predictions. It’s a passing NFL right now, and that is evident in the number of quarterbacks and wide recievers that are not needed and will be passed over. The answer is going to be, for lots of teams, secondary improvements which can give pass-rushers that extra second to smear head-liner quarterbacks and bigger offensive lines to negate just that.
This was an epic project that was way more work that any Bracketology or NFL Preview post combined. What’s worse, I’m not quite sure why I did it. Bragging rights I guess. …and you know what? If I’m anywhere close to correct on, well, any of this… you poor bastards will never hear the end of it. Likely though, I won’t get a single comment and only half of these correct. Too bad and ah well. Guess I’ll have to wait ‘til the 22nd of April.
WHODEY!!!