Bracketography: The Sixteenth Principal
A goal properly set is halfway reached ~ Zig Ziglar, American Motivational Speaker
I altered my work station as I do every March. I take one wall near my desk and removal all manner of décor, be it paintings, plaques, or posters; memos, mirrors, or general mercantile; it all comes down to make room for how many ever NCAA brackets are placed within my stead-fast care. Based directly on this, I’d say that my productivity for the month drops anywhere from a quarter to a third as I will catch myself dutifully starring at the various opinions and possibilities about twice an hour for the majority of the work day not to mention the various amounts of updating and scoring that I conduct in the most timely of manners. I’m no mathematician, mind you, but based on my musings, I usually feel like I have a fairly good handle on who stands the greatest probability of going all the way at this point in the tournament. However, if probability meant a God-damn thing in this month, then maybe I might have won one of these be-deviled office pools by now. As it is, I’m not sitting that bad this year. I’ll be the first to admit that I have been wrong before, but I’ve been a lot more wrong in years past. I may only have ten of the sixteen, but I’m willing wager (and have) that they are a solid ten that are going to carry over into the next round and possibly float me into an overall win this year. But let’s take a quick spin around the match-ups and see how much the ol’ Guttersnake’s tune has changed at this point. News Flash: not much. And speaking of No. 1 seeds staying the course, lets talk about UNC and the East. If anyone’s East Region is completely blown out at this point, then you should probably let your spouse handle your financial matters, don’t offer your children ‘life advice’, and never go to Las Vegas . The East was cut and dry, and if you missed more than two games there, I would suggest actually watching a college game before filling out your brackets next year. UNC is still set to roll right on to the Final Four, despite an extremely spirited Washington State team and regardless of the outcome of a mediocre Tennessee team an unimpressive Louisville squad. Those of you who’ve got The Vols upsetting The Tar Heels might find yourself praying for those extra points to pull your bracket out of the gutter, but you’ve probably got a better chance seeing a one seed falling in any other corner of the tournament. And speaking of No. 1 seeds walking into the Final Four, let’s talk about Kansas . The Midwest Region has been rough on a number of brackets here and across the board. How can it not when you’ve got both a ten seed and a twelve seed in the Sweet Sixteen. Lots of folks had Davidson’s incredible last minute win over the ‘Zags, but their route of Georgetown … I didn’t see that coming. The Badger’s have two-stepped thus far in The Dance, so I’ll be interested to see if they can bring in the noise, bring in the funk against The Bulldogs. ‘Nova’s had a similar trotting pace thanks to Clemson offing themselves in the first round. I don’t like saying it, but looks like Kansas is going to find themselves in a National Semi-Final game without playing anyone yet. That’s going to make my call of UNC in the Finals questionable with two powerhouse one seeds locking horns, but I’m going to hang tough with a Tar Heel call and see those boys in baby blue all they way ‘til the clock strikes midnight. And speaking of No. 1 seeds that were supposed to be going out before the Final Four, let’s talk about Memphis . Pitt losing to MSU, while likely, was not what most brackets in the South Region needed. So that being the case, MSU needs to pull off a huge upset against a Tiger team that doesn’t show any of the signs of weakness that people predicted. Unfortunately, I don’t think its going to happen. However, Stanford v. Texas is something that’s a bit more liable to tip in a predicable direction. The Longhorns struggled against St. Mary’s and Stanford is exploding both offensively and defensively thus far in two games that didn’t evolve NIT material teams. Even if Memphis gets by MSU, I think that The Cardinal is going to run Memphis as the only one seed who will not make the Final Four… but it’s not going to be a cake-walk. And speaking of No 1 seeds and close calls, let’s talk about UCLA and the West. Anyone who has done well in this Region should drop an application for Sport Center and possibly NASA. If the Mid-West was turbulent, then the West was a tornado. The Bruins, a lock for a National Championship game by most, nearly got sent to the house in the second round against an unlikely Texas A&M. Western Kentucky is not scared at all, but I don’t think fearlessness will be enough against a team with a sense of entitlement who nearly got eliminated the round prior. Look for UCLA to be fired-up and blow out WKU. And speaking of fired up; enter your Xavier Musketeers. The X-treme Fans were robbed of a Duke rematch and a little payback for a buzzer-beater loss in the Elite Eight back in 2004. However, the X-Men still have something to look forward to cutting their teeth on, because leading the charge of the West Virginia Mountaineers is none other than relocated University of Cincinnati head coach, Bob Huggins. A similar match-up happened a few years ago when the late Skip Process, then displaced Xavier head coach, found himself in early round game at the helm of Wake Forest verses Coach Huggins and The Bearcats. UC advanced that day; not good historical data for WV, and possibly a bit of foreshadowed poetic justice. Regardless, Xavier is a big, faster, smarter team than West Virginia , and should move onto the Elite Eight and to an extremely tough match-up with a similar-styled UCLA. From there, UCLA will likely oust The Musketeers and should move on to a National Championship game without too much effort, but it shouldn’t matter; both UNC and KU outgun The Bruins on any court, nine nights out of ten. Reality aside, lets perchance to dream lest a Cinderella story still be hiding somewhere in the recesses of the Regions. Also note that it has been shown in this tournament, as much as any in recent memory, that it’s not about the seed, but the match up. So let me play out a fantasy pick of mine… It starts with UCLA not coming to play against Western Kentucky, disappearing right in step with Memphis . Xavier marches over WV and faces a running-on-fumes WKU in the Elite Eight. With a win there, XU moves on to the Final Four for the first time in school history against another three seed from the South Region, Stanford. Xavier, driven by the possibility to do something that has never been done in school history, rockets themselves into a National Championship game. From there, its just one night, one game, one chance… and when the odds are that skewed, all the guesswork and numbers can be thrown out the window, because it’s anyone’s game. Let’s all just remember who won the Superbowl this year… GO MUSKIES!!!
The laws of probability; so true in general, so fallacious in particular. ~ Edward Gibbson
I altered my work station as I do every March. I take one wall near my desk and removal all manner of décor, be it paintings, plaques, or posters; memos, mirrors, or general mercantile; it all comes down to make room for how many ever NCAA brackets are placed within my stead-fast care. Based directly on this, I’d say that my productivity for the month drops anywhere from a quarter to a third as I will catch myself dutifully starring at the various opinions and possibilities about twice an hour for the majority of the work day not to mention the various amounts of updating and scoring that I conduct in the most timely of manners. I’m no mathematician, mind you, but based on my musings, I usually feel like I have a fairly good handle on who stands the greatest probability of going all the way at this point in the tournament. However, if probability meant a God-damn thing in this month, then maybe I might have won one of these be-deviled office pools by now. As it is, I’m not sitting that bad this year. I’ll be the first to admit that I have been wrong before, but I’ve been a lot more wrong in years past. I may only have ten of the sixteen, but I’m willing wager (and have) that they are a solid ten that are going to carry over into the next round and possibly float me into an overall win this year. But let’s take a quick spin around the match-ups and see how much the ol’ Guttersnake’s tune has changed at this point. News Flash: not much. And speaking of No. 1 seeds staying the course, lets talk about UNC and the East. If anyone’s East Region is completely blown out at this point, then you should probably let your spouse handle your financial matters, don’t offer your children ‘life advice’, and never go to Las Vegas . The East was cut and dry, and if you missed more than two games there, I would suggest actually watching a college game before filling out your brackets next year. UNC is still set to roll right on to the Final Four, despite an extremely spirited Washington State team and regardless of the outcome of a mediocre Tennessee team an unimpressive Louisville squad. Those of you who’ve got The Vols upsetting The Tar Heels might find yourself praying for those extra points to pull your bracket out of the gutter, but you’ve probably got a better chance seeing a one seed falling in any other corner of the tournament. And speaking of No. 1 seeds walking into the Final Four, let’s talk about Kansas . The Midwest Region has been rough on a number of brackets here and across the board. How can it not when you’ve got both a ten seed and a twelve seed in the Sweet Sixteen. Lots of folks had Davidson’s incredible last minute win over the ‘Zags, but their route of Georgetown … I didn’t see that coming. The Badger’s have two-stepped thus far in The Dance, so I’ll be interested to see if they can bring in the noise, bring in the funk against The Bulldogs. ‘Nova’s had a similar trotting pace thanks to Clemson offing themselves in the first round. I don’t like saying it, but looks like Kansas is going to find themselves in a National Semi-Final game without playing anyone yet. That’s going to make my call of UNC in the Finals questionable with two powerhouse one seeds locking horns, but I’m going to hang tough with a Tar Heel call and see those boys in baby blue all they way ‘til the clock strikes midnight. And speaking of No. 1 seeds that were supposed to be going out before the Final Four, let’s talk about Memphis . Pitt losing to MSU, while likely, was not what most brackets in the South Region needed. So that being the case, MSU needs to pull off a huge upset against a Tiger team that doesn’t show any of the signs of weakness that people predicted. Unfortunately, I don’t think its going to happen. However, Stanford v. Texas is something that’s a bit more liable to tip in a predicable direction. The Longhorns struggled against St. Mary’s and Stanford is exploding both offensively and defensively thus far in two games that didn’t evolve NIT material teams. Even if Memphis gets by MSU, I think that The Cardinal is going to run Memphis as the only one seed who will not make the Final Four… but it’s not going to be a cake-walk. And speaking of No 1 seeds and close calls, let’s talk about UCLA and the West. Anyone who has done well in this Region should drop an application for Sport Center and possibly NASA. If the Mid-West was turbulent, then the West was a tornado. The Bruins, a lock for a National Championship game by most, nearly got sent to the house in the second round against an unlikely Texas A&M. Western Kentucky is not scared at all, but I don’t think fearlessness will be enough against a team with a sense of entitlement who nearly got eliminated the round prior. Look for UCLA to be fired-up and blow out WKU. And speaking of fired up; enter your Xavier Musketeers. The X-treme Fans were robbed of a Duke rematch and a little payback for a buzzer-beater loss in the Elite Eight back in 2004. However, the X-Men still have something to look forward to cutting their teeth on, because leading the charge of the West Virginia Mountaineers is none other than relocated University of Cincinnati head coach, Bob Huggins. A similar match-up happened a few years ago when the late Skip Process, then displaced Xavier head coach, found himself in early round game at the helm of Wake Forest verses Coach Huggins and The Bearcats. UC advanced that day; not good historical data for WV, and possibly a bit of foreshadowed poetic justice. Regardless, Xavier is a big, faster, smarter team than West Virginia , and should move onto the Elite Eight and to an extremely tough match-up with a similar-styled UCLA. From there, UCLA will likely oust The Musketeers and should move on to a National Championship game without too much effort, but it shouldn’t matter; both UNC and KU outgun The Bruins on any court, nine nights out of ten. Reality aside, lets perchance to dream lest a Cinderella story still be hiding somewhere in the recesses of the Regions. Also note that it has been shown in this tournament, as much as any in recent memory, that it’s not about the seed, but the match up. So let me play out a fantasy pick of mine… It starts with UCLA not coming to play against Western Kentucky, disappearing right in step with Memphis . Xavier marches over WV and faces a running-on-fumes WKU in the Elite Eight. With a win there, XU moves on to the Final Four for the first time in school history against another three seed from the South Region, Stanford. Xavier, driven by the possibility to do something that has never been done in school history, rockets themselves into a National Championship game. From there, its just one night, one game, one chance… and when the odds are that skewed, all the guesswork and numbers can be thrown out the window, because it’s anyone’s game. Let’s all just remember who won the Superbowl this year… GO MUSKIES!!!
The laws of probability; so true in general, so fallacious in particular. ~ Edward Gibbson