Before The Ides of March
Mad I call it; for, to define true madness / What is’t but to be else but Mad? ~ Lord Polonius, Act II, Scene II Hamlet
I think that I’m about ready to call it quits on the whole amateur sports pundit gig. It would seem that I am completely incapable of making any sort of prediction that has even the slightest margin of hopeful gain. The only thing that keeps me in this aggravating leisure pursuit is that arguably neither is anyone else. Perhaps it is the uncertain economy that keeps this whole topsy-turvy NCAA Men’s Basketball season completely unable to find any sure footing, but whatever the reason, one thing is for certain: I have zero idea who is going to be in the Championship game come the first part of April. In short, I just don’t know.
I don’t think that it’s going to be about the seeds. Okay, it’s going to be about the seeds a little. Not like it was last year, however. Last year, we basically knew as far back as November who was going to be our Final Four teams, and voila! here comes, for the first time in NCAA history, all four number 1 seeds making it to the Final Four. While some of the games were kinda cool, overall it wasn’t terribly thrilling. It was actually more like some sort of Roman spectacle in The Coliseum. Look kids, do you think that the dogs will kill the giant mammoth tiger?… guess not.
This year the mammoth tiger is back. The Memphis Tigers have clawed all the way back into disputation as the last of the surprise contenders after starting the season as number 5 in the nation, then dropping out of the Top 25 at open point, and now re-aloft the stack as the recently crowned Number 3 seed in today’s ESPN Poll. But if you think that Memphis is some sort of shock-story, you’d have to have just tuned in your local sports network because while they are likely the most turbulent team out there, The Tigers aren’t all that out of the norm.
After Week 7 when a mediocre Boston College dismantled the University of North Carolina, a team that many had herald as “unbeatable”, there was seemingly a new Number 1 every week up until, well, now. I can’t say that their aren’t favorites, but what I can offer is that every one of them has proven to be beatable by teams that are relative nobodies. The key word there is relative. And fairly, nobody in the Top 25 is a nobody this year. You can go down the list, nearly into teams that aren’t ranked, and find some sort of surprising win somewhere in their season, just as with each likely favorite you can find an equally surprising loss. What the guys on ESPNews and Sports Center are saying about all this is absolutely true: the NCAA Tournament Committee is going to definitely have a hard time picking the 64 teams who are going to The Dance this year because there are so many good teams… good, but not great. What I haven’t heard anyone saying is that just as important as who is going to The Dance is going to be who your dancing with; that is to say, the match-ups in the brackets.
Start with this line of questioning; who are going to be the four number 1 seeds? The correct answer is, I don’t know. Right now, there are ten teams who have valid reasons to be a number 1 (UConn, UNC, Memphis, OU, Wake, MSU, Pitt, KU, Louisville, and Duke), but moreover there are ten more teams right behind them that all deserve to be number 2 or 3 seeds, each with the ability to hand anyone of those potential 1 seeds their lungs on the court (Clemson, XU, LSU, Washington, Marquette, Nova, Mizzou, Perdue, and UCLA).
So second question; who do you want your number 1 seed to match up with? Again, the correct answer is, I don’t know. Take the triangle case of UNC, UConn, and OU. In this humble man’s opinion, logic is defied by the match-up. For example, UNC’s speed and raw offence can play ball with that of UConn giving them the edge in size and speed, and UConn’s guard defense and underscored size in the low post can fold down on the singularity of Blake Griffin and one-dimensional bullying Sooners. However, I give the edge back to OU if they were to see UNC in the Elite Eight for two reasons; UNC’s Tyler Hansborough is just not only going to have a hard time matching up well with Blake Griffen, but also the Tar Heels play a run-and-gun fast break offense, which OU can stop in a way that UConn will have a hard time containing. See? It’s a vicious circle…
Third question, and it might be a rhetorical one; what are the chances of a 1 seed and a 2 seed making to the Elite Eight without upset? If you mumbled, I don’t know, then you would be correct yet again. Just like the example above, every favorite has a chink of inconsistency in their armor and every little fish in the sea is a piranha this year. The likelihood of seeing anything close to last year’s all number 1 seed Final Four is slim. You’re far more likely to see a Final Four this year with no number 1 seeds.
Is that going to make the brackets fun this year? I one thing that I do know is that, yes, it will. But I will expect a certain loss of caliber from the individual players come the Final Four. If the brackets become flooded in upsets, which they likely will, then we’ll see one of two things: either a sub-par Finals should we find ourselves in an underdog’s championship with no real powerhouses present, or we get one, perhaps two, real heavy weights in the ring and it turns into a thirty-point spread blood-bath come crunch time.
Therefore my advice to you all is to take some sick days and head to the sports bars this weekend my friends. With the amount of guaranteed grudge-matches coming up (Duke v. UNC, Pitt v. UConn, OU v. Mizzou, Clemson v. Wake, MSU v. Purdue, Marquette v. Syracuse) there is a really good percentile that says that this is your last chance to see Final Four level play this season.
Go Xavier! Beat Dayton!